As we await the results of the 2020 philpaper survey that sent questionnaires to hundreds of philosophers to gauge the popularity of various philosophical positions, I’ve decided to talk about the last philpaper survey which occurred in 2009. While there have been many claims from both theists and atheists that theistic belief is on the rise in Anglo-American philosophy departments, this last survey seemed to show otherwise. Theism had a measly 14.6% affirmation rate among the respondents. I'm hoping that number has increased this time around.
The Problem: This may give cause for concern, especially if we should give significant weight to experts or our epistemic peers. We, in the ordinary case of life, invest expert testimony with quite a bit of weight. It’s the way courts proceed, for instance. It’s also the way our usual visits to the doctor go. And it seems like philosophers are probably in the best position to be experts on the question of God's existence.
So how should the average Christian take theism’s unpopularity in the philosophy community?
1. As a first volley, we should keep in mind that arguments from authority give only prima facie justification. They are defeasible. This should inspire us to enter the debate and get down to brass tacks, knowing and able to defend our beliefs.
2. As William Lane Craig pointed out, there are some worries about the methodology of the survey. The survey had less than a 50% participation rate of those surveyed. Only 931 responded. This seems too small a sample and the participation rate is too low--indicators, according to sociologist Rodney Stark, that the results should not be trusted. It also seems that the survey may have suffered from selection bias, as it was not sent to universities associated with strong religious departments. WLC reports that neither he nor any of his colleagues received the survey. This is troublesome especially given the prominence of WLC.
3. The results of the survey are also tempered when one realizes that philosophers of religion, which are the philosophers we'd expect to be the most familiar with the literature on God’s existence, are overwhelmingly (72.3%) theist according to the survey. If philosophers of religion are the relevant experts for whether belief in God is rational, then it seems that an argument from authority would then boost the case for theism.
There are, however, worries about arguing in this way. It’s possible that narrowing in on only philosophers of religion is subject to confirmation bias, for why would an atheistic philosopher become a philosopher of religion? If a person is going to study religion, they’re probably religious. I think that’s part of it, but not the whole story. I think there may even be a countervailing effect: There’s a selection effect towards religious skepticism in philosophical circles to demonstrate to others that one is a critical thinker, a true philosopher.
So while this point doesn’t have overwhelming weight, it should have some.
4. Christian philosophers may also be picked out of philosophy departments given that their expertise and commitments open up career paths into Christian colleges, churches, and so on. Atheistic philosophers presumably don’t have these career paths open to them. This effect may diminish the number of theistic philosophers participating in the survey in an unjustified way.
5. This point is anecdotal, but still quite powerful in my mind. It’s taken from Joshua Rasmussen:
I’ve had many conversations with philosophers (including famous philosophers) at conferences about God, and, unless they specialized in philosophy of religion, they didn’t know much about the arguments for God. I’ve had many conversations where a philosopher said my argument gave them something new to think about and even moved them closer to theism.
6. The epistemology of disagreement is complex. There’s a burgeoning literature on it. Many take it that when we encounter an epistemic peer that disagrees with our viewpoint that we should temper our confidence in our belief accordingly. But McGrew suggests that this isn’t the correct procedure: “Popularity is a rotten test of truth.” If we are well studied in an area, possessing arguments and evidence, then when we encounter someone who disagrees with us the disagreement should first cast doubt on that someone actually knowing what they’re talking about rather than undermine our confidence.
7. Despite the measly 14.6% of theists in philosophy departments, this may nevertheless still reflect an *increase* from decades ago. The 1950s were a barren wasteland for theists in Anglo-American philosophy. Since the publication of Alvin Plantinga’s work in the 1960s, philosophers such as Alexander Pruss, William Alston, and Robert Adams have come onto the scene. Many philosophers, including atheistic ones, have even described the last few decades as a renaissance for theism. From the atheist philosopher Quintin Smith: “But in philosophy, it became, almost overnight, ‘academically respectable’ to argue for theism, making philosophy a favored field of entry for the most intelligent and talented theists entering academia today. A count would show that in Oxford University Press’ 2000-2001 catalogue, there are 96 recently published books on the philosophy of religion . . . . By contrast, there are 28 books . . . on the philosophy of language, 23 on epistemology (including religious epistemology, such as Plantinga’s Warranted Christian Belief), 14 on metaphysics,...”
8. We can also make some use of Reformed Epistemology in this debate. If Christians really do have a path of knowledge open to them that is not publicly available--the testimony of the Holy Spirit--the lack of Christian belief among academic philosophers is not surprising and would not carry the usual weight of expert authority.
9. This point is taken directly from Joshua Rasmussen. He's referencing another survey done by Helen De Cruz that was directed towards philosophers of religion only, which can be found here.
In this study, De Cruz analyzes the belief revision of philosophers of religion. She reports, "12.2% (n = 17) went from religious belief to nonbelief, often as undergraduates, when encountering philosophical objections to theism. By contrast, 9.4% (n = 13) went from agnosticism or atheism to religious belief." At first blush, this stat may seem to confirm the impression that philosophy is more likely to make you skeptical of God. However, to get an accurate analysis, we need to factor in the fact that most of the respondents were theists. That changes the analysis. In particular, she found that 17 out of 85 theists surveyed moved to non-theism. So 20% of the theists who went into the field of philosophy became atheist or agnostic. By contrast, 13 out of 33 non-theists (atheists and agnostics) surveyed moved to theism. That's 39% -- almost double. In other words, according to the study, philosophers of religion are nearly twice as likely to move toward theism than away from theism.
10. This point is less relevant but I'm gonna stick it here anyway. We can consider the testimony of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. “They reported that 51% of scientists say that they believe in God or a higher power while 41% say that they do not. The Pew people point out that this is virtually unchanged from the time when the scientific community was first polled on this issue back in 1914.”
And more, “What is further interesting is a study that was conducted by the Rice University sociologist Elaine Ecklund reported in 2005. She surveyed over 1,600 faculty members at elite research universities. What Ecklund discovered was that the beliefs of scientists in God or not are typically formed before they chose their career path to go into science. It was when they were adolescents or younger, and then they chose to go into a particular field of study. So their disbelief among that percentage that does disbelieve isn't a reflection of their scientific training or their intellectual prowess. Those beliefs were formed prior to their entry into the career path of science.”
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